Page 24 - inPRINT Issue 63

inFACT

OUTPUT AND ORDERS SINK TO NEW
printing outlook DEPTHS IN Q2 AMIDST COVID

ENFORCED CRISIS IN CONFIDENCE –

BUT REBUILDING IS UNDERWAY IN Q3

he UK printing and forecast (-55). This is the competitors pricing below a section on the COVID-19
Tprinted packaging worst quarterly report on normal rates (24%). restart. The standout issue
industry hit a record low in record, undercutting the -51 The notable changes in preventing full recovery from
the second quarter of 2020. recorded in Q1 2009 and the the priorities are a decline in the enforced slowdown is
The COVID-19 outbreak hit immediate aftermath of the concern regarding the health insufficient demand levels
at the end of Q1, but it is Q2 financial crisis. & safety aspects of COVID-19, to sustain business. A ‘lack
that has taken the brunt of The output balance of -59 an increase in concerns of demand’ was by far the
the impact as both output was just below the forecast of about ‘competitors pricing most commonly selected
and orders recorded their -55 for Q2. A balance of +7 is below cost’ (from 13% to operational challenge, chosen
worst ever balances – in line forecast for Q3. 24%) and Brexit coming back by 70% of respondents.
with the forecasts provided During Q3, output growth on the radar (up from 6% The action businesses
in Q1. But expectations for Q3 is forecast to increase for last quarter to 27% on this would most like to see
reveal some improvement is 36% of companies. A similar occasion). Government take is an
to come, though certainly not proportion (35%) predict The latest edition of extension of the Coronavirus
a return to pre-coronavirus that they will be able to hold Printing Outlook also features Job Retention Scheme (CJRS);
normality. output levels steady, but
The latest Printing Outlook 29% expect output levels to Top 3 business concerns – % of respondents selecting
survey shows that 15% of fall. That leaves a forecasted 0 20 40 60 80
printers managed to increase balance of +7 for the volume Late payment by customers 35
their output levels in the of output in Q3. Survival of major customers 37
second quarter of 2020. Dealing with the economic Competitors pricing below cost 24
Fewer (11%) were able to impact of COVID-19 remains, Paper or board prices
hold output steady, whilst by far, the most important 10
74% reported a decline in business concern for Pre-pack administrations 10
output. The resulting balance businesses. It was selected Weak productivity levels 11
(the difference between the by 75% of respondents. The Profit levels insufficient to ensure… 7
ups and the downs) was top three concerns were Brexit 27
-59, a further drop from survival of major customers’ Covid-19 - health and safety 17
the -43 reported in Q1 and (37%) late payment by Covid-19 - economic impact 75
marginally below the Q2 customers (35%), and
Source: BPIF Printing Outlook

Volume Of Output – Q2 Deteriorates As Forcast, Decline To Halt In Q3
% BALANCE ACTUAL FORECAST
60 “Responses to the survey make it clear
just how undesirable the lingering
40 uncertainty is, and how difficult it is
to plan; not an ideal time for Brexit to
20 get back in-the-mix. However, there’s
some solace in the fact that we are
0
all in this together; Government is
-20 listening, and we are communicating
with Government; and some companies
-40 will certainly be looking to benefit from
clients reshoring back to the UK.”
-60
Charles Jarrold, BPIF Chief Executive
-80
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: BPIF Printing Outlook
The output balance of -59 was just below the forecast of -55 for Q2. A balance of +7
is forecast for Q3.

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